Just keeping up with the news today could be considered a full-time job. Federal grant freezes, potential changes to student loan programs, increased scrutiny of student visas, and other headlines are keeping higher education in the spotlight. The deluge of headlines has the potential to upend priorities and disrupt long-term planning.
How can colleges and universities keep up?
Periods of great change require clear models for change management. While short-term pressures are real and require attention, colleges and universities must not abandon long-term thinking.
A Volatile External Environment Requires an Open Systems View
Higher education’s external environment—the clash of demographic trends, economic conditions, politics, and evolving consumer preferences—is increasingly complex and shows no signs of settling down. But understanding the rapidly changing environment, and adapting to it, will determine a college or university’s ability to persevere through the next era of higher education.
As a thought exercise, let’s consider the demographic cliff. Figure 1 games out three potential first-time enrollment scenarios by applying varying levels of projected enrollment rates to the forecasted trends of graduating high school students: the status quo, a turn for the worse, and beating the odds.
Figure 1
The term “demographic cliff” is often used interchangeably with the term “enrollment cliff,” but this is a bit of a misnomer; it implies that we know how these students will behave once at the doorstep of postsecondary education. Indeed, Figure 1 illustrates that a number of scenarios could play out.
So, let’s look at the numbers.
Current forecasts show that the number of high school graduates will fall from more than 3.8 million in 2025 to less than 3.4 million in 2041—a decline of 13%. Will traditional undergraduate enrollment go with it? Here are three possible scenarios:
- Scenario 1 – The Status Quo: In this scenario, the recent high school graduate enrollment rate matches the prior 10-year average (65%) reflecting that institutions made marginal progress to offset challenges shaped by the demographic cliff. High school graduate enrollment is in line with or slightly outperforms high school graduate decline.
- Scenario 2 – A Turn for the Worse: In this scenario, the recent high school graduate enrollment rate struggles to recover from the lows experienced through the pandemic and high inflation periods (61% low in 2023 – the lowest in 30 years) reflecting that institutions struggled to adapt to the challenges shaped by the demographic cliff. High school graduate enrollment underperforms high school graduate decline.
- Scenario 3 – Beating the Odds: In this scenario, the recent high school graduate enrollment rate recovers to the highs experienced over the last decade (69% as recently as 2018!) reflecting that institutions have proactively reacted to the challenges shaped by the demographic cliff and sustained changes to meet the moment. High school graduate enrollment significantly outperforms demographic trends (though still seeing decline).
A host of issues will determine the actual impact of the demographic cliff on enrollment, but how well institutions embrace change may be the difference between scenarios 2 (a 17% decrease in enrollment) and 3 (a 4% decrease). From an organizational theory perspective, to beat the odds, colleges and universities must abide by an open systems view—one that sees the institution as an adaptive organism that proactively and appropriately responds to its external environment.
To combat demographic decline, this means embracing a range of strategies. This could include actions like: tuning into the preferences of Gen Alpha, taking tangible steps to address costs for students, offering the right mix of academic programs, measuring return-on-investment to ease value concerns, consistently staying aligned to labor market dynamics, embracing innovative program models, and making smart investments in technology.
More than anything, it requires “putting up the big tent”—or ensuring your institution is prepared to serve a wide range of students including those who are not currently being served by higher education. And some schools are indeed beating the odds.
Preparing for Change: Where To Start?
Adopting a model for implementing organizational change is a good way to get started. Doing so now will smooth resistance to change in the future. Many institutions that initially resisted online learning, for example, are still struggling to catch up—so, it’s best not to be caught flat-footed later on.
There are many change models out there to consider. However, we like Kotter’s Eight-Step Change Model given its initial focus on creating a climate more willing to embrace, and take part in, change—a common challenge for colleges and universities given the wide range of stakeholders with sometimes competing goals.
To demonstrate this model, we focus on Georgia Tech’s big announcement from fall 2024 that for the first time in over 30 years—indeed, a big change—it was launching a new college: the College of Lifetime Learning. The stated goal was to be at the forefront of learning innovation research, reskilling the labor market, and appealing to new audiences (from K-12 students to lifelong learners).
This last point, appealing to new audiences, is important. As Figure 1 shows, even beating the odds in the demographic cliff will likely mean some degree of enrollment decline. Many schools will need to look beyond the traditional-aged college-going population by preparing to serve the lifelong learner, diversifying their program mixes, and experimenting with flexible learning models.
Figure 2 provides a breakdown of Kotter’s Eight-Step Change Model, highlighting critical junctures from Georgia Tech’s planning process. (Of note, it’s unclear what model Georgia Tech actually used, but multiple points reveal alignment).
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Broad Theme |
Kotter’s Eight-Steps |
Georgia Tech’s Illustrative Example – The College of Lifetime Learning |
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Creating the Climate of Change |
1) Create a sense of urgency |
In 2021–2022, Georgia Tech noted that shifting demographics and rapid automation were impacting the workforce and increasing the need for upskilling. |
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2) Build a guiding coalition |
In 2022–2023, Georgia Tech launched the Lifetime Learning initiative, uniting key centers and creating cross-functional working groups for data collection and stakeholder engagement (with listening sessions to create faculty buy-in). This effort culminated in the launch of the Division of Lifetime Learning in July 2023. |
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3) Form a strategic vision |
In 2023, a draft proposal outlined Georgia Tech’s opportunity to be a leader in innovative educational thinking with a new academic unit that would “make learning accessible, affordable, and achievable for all learners from preschool to professional education — and beyond.” |
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Engaging and Enabling the Organization |
4. Enlist a volunteer army |
Division of Lifetime Learning staff and the broader campus community provided input on the draft report recommendations through expanded listening sessions aimed at building shared purpose and vision alignment. |
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5. Enable action by removing barriers |
Design teams proposed the new unit’s structure and operations, with final recommendations approved in a September 2023 report to guide the Institute’s next steps. |
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6. Generate short-term wins |
This work led to the College of Lifetime Learning being recommended by Georgia Tech faculty in April 2024, approved by the Board of Regents in August, and announced by the president in September. |
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Implementing and Sustaining Change |
7) Sustain acceleration |
Ongoing: A Search for inaugural leadership is ongoing, staff is integrating, and academic programs are being developed. |
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8) Institute change |
Future: First-credit bearing classes are aiming for a spring 2026 launch and a goal of enrolling 114,000 learners by 2030 is set. |
Figure 2
The Bottom Line
Notably, Georgia Tech has implemented this change from a particularly unique position of strength, with record enrollment and existing innovations in its online offerings. Not all schools have the capacity to launch such an endeavor. But this type of proactive evolution exemplifies an open systems view that can be instructive none-the-less.
The next era of higher education will come with many real challenges for institutional leaders and their communities. But challenges provide the opportunity for a rethink—a process that will be enhanced with models in place to usher in change.
Interested in diving deeper? Join us at Eduventures Summit 2025, happening June 16–18 in Chicago, where higher ed leaders explore what it really takes to navigate disruption and drive meaningful change. From harnessing AI and rethinking degree models to exploring the evolving credential landscape, this is your opportunity to engage with the ideas shaping the future of higher education.
Eduventures Summit – higher education's premier thought leadership event – is returning to the Windy City next year. Secure your spot today!
