The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates — Part 2: Labor Market Tradeoffs

Last week, we wrote about how recent computer science graduates are seeing unemployment rates closer to that of fine arts graduates (6.1% vs. 7.0%) — and that recent computer engineering graduates are seeing unemployment rates closer to that of anthropology majors (7.5% vs. 9.4%) rather than the overall average of 3.6%.

That post pointed out that, despite rising unemployment rates among recent college graduates, this group is still seeing lower rates of unemployment than their non-college peers.

Today’s Wake-Up Call provides a deeper view of the labor market for recent college graduates. What are the key dynamics at play?

Layering in More Data

Certainly, current unemployment rate levels provide some pause for fields of study that, just a few years ago, seemed destined for continuous and sustained growth. But the unemployment rate alone, especially by major, doesn’t provide enough data to make long-term programmatic decisions. By no means should colleges or universities rush to sunset their computer science programs (please don’t do this!).

More data is needed to wrap our arms around the labor market for recent college graduates.

For this, let’s also add underemployment rates and early career earnings for a more informed view of major-aligned labor market strength. Behind the scenes, we mapped these three metrics to 70 major fields of study. Then, we scored each metric and produced a summative final labor market score (e.g., the top score possible is 30).

Figure 1 shows the results for the top 15 highest-scoring majors.

The Most Favorable Majors for Recent Graduates in Today’s Labor Market

Top 15 Fields of Study for Recent College Graduates Based on Unemployment, Underemployment, and Early Career Earnings

Major	Unemployment Rate Score	Underemployment Rate Score	Median Wage Score	Total Labor Market Score
Chemical Engineering	8	10	10	28
Mechanical Engineering	9	9	10	28
Aerospace Engineering	9	9	10	28
Civil Engineering	10	9	9	28
Construction Services	10	9	9	28
Electrical Engineering	8	9	10	27
Nursing	9	10	8	27
Accounting	9	9	8	26
General Engineering	8	8	9	25
Business Analytics	8	8	9	25
Industrial Engineering	3	10	10	23
Pharmacy	6	10	7	23
Special Education	10	9	4	23
Computer Science	2	10	10	22
Computer Engineering	1	10	10	21

Figure 1.

Figure 1 shows many top subfields in engineering (eight of the top 15), but nursing, business analytics, accounting, and special education also make the cut. In the case of special education, despite the lower pay, the solid outlook in unemployment and underemployment elevates its score.

We can also see that, despite above-average unemployment, computer science and computer engineering also make the cut. For these majors, we may be seeing that some labor market tradeoffs are developing—perhaps there is an above-average chance of unemployment, but if you land a job, you will not be underemployed and will benefit from high earnings.

The same cannot be said for recent anthropology or fine arts graduates—fields that rival unemployment rates in these technology domains (as previously discussed), but that have “3” and “5” Total Labor Market Scores, respectively.

Figure 2 shows a fuller picture of these fields along with the other subfields that make up the 15 lowest-scoring majors.

The Least Favorable Majors for Recent Graduates in Today’s Labor Market

Bottom 15 Fields of Study for Recent College Graduates Based on Unemployment, Underemployment, and Early Career Earnings

Major	Unemployment Rate Score	Underemployment Rate Score	Median Wage Score	Total Labor Market Score
Theology and Religion	6	5	1	12
Criminal Justice	7	1	4	12
Communications	3	2	6	11
Miscellaneous Technologies	2	1	7	10
Public Policy and Law	2	2	5	9
History	3	3	3	9
Performing Arts	7	1	1	9
English Language	2	3	3	8
Foreign Language	4	3	1	8
General Social Sciences	5	2	1	8
Leisure and Hospitality	4	1	2	7
Sociology	1	2	3	6
Fine Arts	1	2	2	5
Liberal Arts	2	1	2	5
Anthropology	1	1	1	3

Figure 2.

Figure 2 shows quite a different view, where nine of the 15 majors shown are mapped to the humanities, arts, or social sciences. This deals a significant blow to the argument for humanities and liberal arts-aligned fields preparing graduates for the labor market, since some of these majors see the highest levels of unemployment and underemployment along with the lowest levels of pay.

Connections can be made between Figures 1 and 2 and fields of study sentiment data. For example, according to the Fed’s latest Survey of Household Economics and Decision-Making, 50% of social science, humanities, and arts bachelor’s graduates would choose a different major if given the chance—the highest level of “regret” across all fields of study. In contrast, only 25% of engineering graduates reported such regret, the lowest among all majors surveyed.

The Bottom Line

Last week’s Wake-Up Call raised the critical question of how to prepare all bachelor’s graduates, no matter their majors, for the future of work. With Figure 2’s lowest scoring majors in mind, it is clear that a specific subset of graduates is being left behind in the labor market despite recent volatility for computer science majors.

Perhaps this will shine new light on programming that seeks to produce the multi-faceted, dynamic, and well-rounded graduate—for example, one that can code and debate the merits of rationalism.

There are some interesting models out there. Purdue University’s Degree Plus provides a streamlined dual bachelor’s degree pathway (in four years), offering combinations like AI and Philosophy or Communication and Law. At Northeastern University, over half of the undergraduate students in the Khoury College of Computer Science are pursuing their passions through interdisciplinary combined degree programs where 56 unique combinations are offered like Computer Science and Business Administration or Data Science and Design. These examples might provide models for replication.

What is clear is that, to avoid more questioning on bachelor’s degree value, these are tensions that must be addressed. And quickly.