In a prior Wake-Up Call, From Boom to Reckoning, Eduventures examined the sharp decline in new international graduate students in fall 2025. Emerging reports suggest continued turbulence in the new academic year as well. Policy changes and heavy reliance on China and India have left enrollment pipelines exposed.
Our guidance then included two recommendations: assess your programmatic exposure and balance program portfolios for international and domestic audiences.
Today’s post takes that assessment a step further, introducing an International Risk Score that identifies the master’s fields — most and least — exposed to international enrollment turbulence. Program leaders can use this score to pinpoint portfolio exposure, focus enrollment triage efforts, and identify opportunities for domestic growth.
The Master’s Market Dilemma
No U.S. credential has benefitted from international enrollment growth quite like the master’s degree market.
Between 2006 and 2025, total master’s degree conferrals grew 63%, from just over 601,000 to more than 980,000. More striking, however, is that international master’s conferrals almost tripled, growing over 191% from just under 73,000 in 2006 to almost 212,000 in 2025. International students now account for 22% of all U.S. master’s degree conferrals, up from 12% in 2006.
You read that right. As of 2025, almost one-quarter of all master’s degrees in the U.S. were conferred to international students.
In fact, almost all master’s degree growth since 2021 can be attributed to international students. Between 2021 and 2025, international master’s conferrals grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.7%, compared to just 0.7% for domestic students.
But these trends vary considerably by field of study. Figure 1 compares domestic and international conferral performance across 241 master’s fields from 2021-2025.
Using overall domestic (0.7%) and international (12.7%) CAGR as benchmarks, the fields fall into four quadrants:
- Broad-Based Growth (61 fields): The fields of study found in this quadrant exceeded their respective benchmarks on both domestic and international growth. Data Science is one example, with conferrals doubling among both populations.
- Domestic-Driven Growth (54 fields): For these programs, domestic demand provided the heavy lifting while international performance was mixed. Electrical and Electronics Engineering, for example, grew 4% annually among domestic students while international conferrals fell by 1% annually.
- International-Reliant Growth (25 fields): The fields in this quadrant were almost entirely propped up by international students, while domestic conferrals underperformed. IT Project Management illustrates this, with flat domestic demand (-0.9% annually) but strong international performance (50% annually).
- Broad-Based Underperformance (101 fields): Representing more than one-third of fields, this quadrant underperformed both domestic and international benchmarks, with 41 of 101 fields registering declines in both segments. Accounting is one such example, seeing both domestic and international demand crater (-8% and -21% annually).
Toggle over the chart above to see where specific fields of study landed!
Measuring International Exposure
This mapping provides a useful tool for understanding recent domestic versus international demand trends. It does not tell us which fields face the greatest risk from international enrollment declines.
For example, take two fields that land in the Broad-Based Growth quadrant: Physician Assistant and Computer Science.
Both experienced strong domestic and international growth between 2021 and 2025. Yet, international students accounted for less than 1% of Physician Assistant conferrals in 2025, compared to 74% of Computer Science conferrals. Despite their similar growth classifications, their exposure to international enrollment turbulence is vastly different.
To capture these differences, Eduventures developed an International Risk Score combining three measures:
- International Student Share. The proportion of a field’s 2025 master’s conferrals awarded to international students.
- International Student Scale. The absolute number of master’s degrees conferred to international students in 2025.
- International Growth Contribution. The net change in international conferrals from 2021 to 2025 divided by the field’s 2025 total size.
Each metric is normalized and weighted to produce a composite score from 0 to 100. Fields are then classified into four tiers of international risk: Critical, High, Moderate, and Low.
Table 1 provides selected examples.
Table 1. A Sample of the Eduventures International Risk Score Results – Master’s Programs
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Source: Eduventures scoring and analysis of NCES IPEDS data. Scores are relative to the universe of 241 CIP codes with over 500 master’s conferrals in 2025 (over 91% of 2025 master’s conferral coverage represented).
These composite scores show that international exposure is not driven by one metric alone. Rather, international exposure sits at the intersection of how reliant a field is on international students, how many international students drive that reliance, and how much market scale is based on international growth.
Interested in finding out how a certain master’s market scores? Reach out to your client research analyst to learn more!
In total, 19 fields (8% of all fields) are categorized as Critical Risk, yet they account for almost 40% of all international conferrals in 2025. Adding the 50 High Risk fields brings that share to 78%. In other words, much of the master’s market’s international exposure is concentrated in a relatively small number of fields.
The Bottom Line
The international graduate boom that fueled much of the master’s market growth since 2021 is cooling, leaving institutions with internationally dependent programs particularly vulnerable.
The International Risk Score measures exposure to international enrollment turbulence and can serve as a starting point to inform program and portfolio strategy in the years ahead. But risk does not necessarily mean a lack of opportunity.
Of the 19 Critical Risk master’s fields, 13 also experienced domestic growth between 2021 and 2025. For institutions offering these programs, the strategic question may be less about whether to continue investing and more about how to strengthen domestic demand.
To explore the International Risk Scores for specific fields and graduate student trends from the Eduventures Adult Prospect Research™, contact your client research analyst.
